INSTRUCTIONS
- Valuation homework is 20 points. Get to know your company, the business lines, owners2) Using the excel template we created in class, forecast the next 10 years of the company. Change the assumptions as you wish. Make them more appropriate to your company’s past and your personal belief as to what would happen in the future. Clearly state your new assumptions.3) Provide a table of your assumptions and resulting FCFs.4) Provide a DCF analysis including your WACC assumptions.5) Provide a sensitivity analysis table. Choose variables that have changed more than others in the past. Make sure to provide both upsides and downsides.6) Using PE of 8 and EV/EBITDA of 6 as peer multiples, perform a peer multiple valuation.7) Using subjective weights combine DCF and peer analyses and reach to a 12 month target price.8) Conclude your valuation and provide a recommendation.
Since you will not have the chance to talk to company management and ask questions, and you have limited time, please do not lose time in trying to forecast the future with great accuracy. The only thing I want is consistency. (e.g. lots of growth with no capex is inconsistent)
Data
| Security | mpark | |||||||||
| Method | AnnouncedCalculatedRestatedFormulated | MCAP | 36,739 | (TL mn) | ||||||
| Coefficient | 1000000 | |||||||||
| Template | XI_29 | |||||||||
| Currency | local | |||||||||
| 2014/YE | 2015/YE | 2016/YE | 2017/YE | 2018/YE | 2019/YE | 2020/YE | 2021/YE | 2022/YE | 2023/YE | |
| REFERENCE | ||||||||||
| Template | XI_29 | XI_29 | XI_29 | XI_29 | XI_29 | XI_29 | XI_29 | XI_29 | XI_29 | XI_29 |
| End of Period | 31.12.2014 | 31.12.2015 | 31.12.2016 | 31.12.2017 | 31.12.2018 | 31.12.2019 | 31.12.2020 | 31.12.2021 | 31.12.2022 | 31.12.2023 |
| Document | Reports | Reports | Reports | Reports | Reports | Reports | Reports | Reports | Reports | Reports |
| Announcement Date | 25.1.2018 | 25.1.2018 | 6.3.2018 | 7.3.2019 | 5.3.2020 | 8.3.2021 | 8.3.2022 | 8.3.2023 | 45370 | 45370 |
| Income Statement FX Rate | ||||||||||
| Balance Sheet FX Rate | ||||||||||
| Cash Flow FX Rate | ||||||||||
| INCOME STATEMENT | ||||||||||
| Net Sales | 1,518.03 | 1,843.39 | 2,160.07 | 2,576.08 | 3,131.56 | 3,703.60 | 4,014.68 | 5,795.95 | 18,902.87 | 22,449.35 |
| Cost Of Sales | -1,240.17 | -1,562.35 | -1,853.76 | -2,170.59 | -2,644.05 | -2,851.76 | -3,058.18 | -4,216.99 | -14,015.54 | -16,018.96 |
| Gross Profit (Loss) from Trade Operations | 277.86 | 281.04 | 306.31 | 405.49 | 487.51 | 851.84 | 956.50 | 1,578.96 | 4,887.34 | 6,430.38 |
| Proceeds from Interest, Fee, Premium, Commission and Other | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Expenses from Interest, Fee, Premium, Commission and Other | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit (Loss) from Financial Operations | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| GROSS PROFIT (LOSS) | 277.86 | 281.04 | 306.31 | 405.49 | 487.51 | 851.84 | 956.50 | 1,578.96 | 4,887.34 | 6,430.38 |
| Marketing Selling & Distrib. Expenses (-) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| General Administrative Expenses (-) | -157.43 | -173.64 | -126.61 | -215.15 | -271.03 | -308.58 | -266.01 | -561.47 | -1,869.45 | -2,188.94 |
| Research & Development Expenses (-) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Income from Other Operations | 207.64 | 111.48 | 198.45 | 380.08 | 598.90 | 333.47 | 560.56 | 544.25 | 897.87 | 953.19 |
| Expenses from Other Operations (-) | -84.20 | -104.55 | -168.53 | -357.68 | -515.11 | -353.80 | -497.44 | -546.21 | -940.61 | -822.95 |
| OPERATING PROFITS | 243.87 | 114.33 | 209.63 | 212.74 | 300.27 | 522.93 | 753.61 | 1,015.53 | 2,975.15 | 4,371.69 |
| Income from Investment Activities | 1.29 | 4.20 | 1.84 | 1.00 | 1.61 | 132.38 | 118.58 | 9.89 | 999.94 | 78.13 |
| Expenses from Investment Activities (-) | -2.50 | -1.73 | -2.41 | -1.19 | -0.43 | -1.53 | -2.45 | -1.04 | -176.70 | -10.72 |
| Profit (Loss) from Subsidiaries | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Operations Profit / Loss before Financial Expenses | 242.66 | 116.79 | 209.06 | 212.54 | 301.46 | 653.78 | 869.73 | 1,024.37 | 3,798.39 | 4,439.09 |
| Financial Income (from Other Operations) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 156.44 | 243.89 |
| Financial Expenses (from Other Operations) (-) | -127.59 | -194.05 | -271.39 | -383.29 | -463.85 | -571.66 | -684.22 | -652.49 | 825.74 | 1,141.96 |
| PROFIT BEFORE TAX FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS | 115.06 | -77.26 | -62.32 | -170.75 | -162.40 | 82.12 | 185.51 | 371.89 | 4,780.56 | 5,824.94 |
| Taxation on Continuing Operations | 11.91 | 34.64 | 13.61 | 37.97 | 58.72 | -25.87 | -62.51 | -16.68 | 110.88 | -1,077.01 |
| Taxation on Income (Expenses) | -9.72 | -11.97 | -5.42 | -11.57 | -14.28 | -20.05 | -34.12 | -82.33 | -106.01 | -534.58 |
| Income (Expenses) of Deferred Tax | 21.63 | 46.61 | 19.03 | 49.54 | 73.00 | -5.82 | -28.40 | 65.65 | 216.89 | -542.43 |
| PROFIT FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS | 126.97 | -42.62 | -48.71 | -132.78 | -103.68 | 56.25 | 123.00 | 355.21 | 4,891.44 | 4,747.93 |
| Profit After Taxes from Discontinued Operations | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NET PROFIT AFTER TAXES | 126.97 | -42.62 | -48.71 | -132.78 | -103.68 | 56.25 | 123.00 | 355.21 | 4,891.44 | 4,747.93 |
| Not to be Reclassified on Profit and Loss | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Actuarial Profit/(Loss) on Retirement | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tax Effect | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Change in Revaluation of Financial Fixed Assets | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| To be Reclassified as Profit or Loss | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Subsidiaries Hedge against Cash Flow Risk ( Net ) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gains (losses) on cash flow hedges | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deferred Tax Effects due to Financial Hedge Instruments against Cash Flow Risk | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| FX Conversion Differences | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME ( AFTER TAX ) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TOTAL COMPREHENSIVE INCOME | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Distrubition of Profit (Loss) | ||||||||||
| Parent Shares | 124.01 | -47.45 | -44.52 | -122.77 | -127.65 | 36.25 | 64.93 | 290.42 | 4,741.60 | 4,529.59 |
| Minority Interests | 2.96 | 4.83 | -4.19 | -10.01 | 23.97 | 20.00 | 58.07 | 64.79 | 149.85 | 218.34 |
| Distribution of Total Comprehensive Income | ||||||||||
| Parent Shares (Total Comprehensive Income) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Minority Interests (Total Comprehensive Income) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diluted Earnings per Share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Earnings per Share from Discontinued Operations | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diluted Earnings per Share from Continued Operations | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diluted Earnings per Share from Discontinued Operations | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Earnings per Share | 0.73 | -0.27 | -0.25 | 0.00 | -0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Earnings per Share from Continuing Operations | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NET PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXES | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| BALANCE SHEET | ||||||||||
| ASSETS | ||||||||||
| CURRENT ASSETS | 798.00 | 901.16 | 1,015.71 | 1,161.18 | 1,478.59 | 1,721.98 | 2,185.28 | 2,741.33 | 6,964.56 | 8,459.55 |
| Cash and Cash Equivalents | 213.22 | 92.09 | 110.68 | 217.85 | 22
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